That is true. The Missouri vote was a beauty contest, with the delegate count to be determined in caucuses on March 17th. But as recently as a few days ago, most pundits were predicting that Romney would sweep the three states that voted Tuesday.
His performance in Minnesota was bad enough. In the Republican primary, he won the state with forty-one per cent of the vote. This time, he failed to get even halfway to that figure, raising anew the question of whether he can rally Republican conservatives in the heartland. Having been largely dismissed by the Republican establishment and the media, Santorum has now won a western state—Colorado—and three states in the midwest: Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri.
Massively outmatched in terms of money and resources in places like Florida and Nevada, he spent a lot of time in the states that voted yesterday—he left Florida early to go to Minnesota—and his old-fashioned retail campaigning was rewarded. Giving his announcement near the site of the pivotal battlefield was perhaps appropriate: Santorum's bid for the nomination was always a long shot. Disdained by the smart money, he was able to plug along under the radar, peak at exactly the right moment, and drag the race out -- only to be ultimately defeated by the better-funded opponent who everyone expected to win at the outset.
His withdrawal from active combat is just the latest sign of the near-certainty of Mitt Romney's nomination as the Republican presidential standard bearer. While Santorum's exit leaves Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul in the race, neither has a serious chance at overcoming Romney. That will save the former Massachusetts governor millions of dollars and millions of joules of energy contesting the Pennsylvania primary on April 24 and beyond.
But Santorum's three-month charge has left a deep impression on the race, and will likely make Mitt Romney's road to November much tougher. Here's how Santorum weakened the GOP front-runner. He has pulled Romney to the right on key issues. Romney's challenge has always been to convince the right wing of his party he is conservative enough without moving too far to the right and endangering his standing with swing voters in the general election.
Santorum, a social if not necessarily small-government conservative of unimpeachable credentials, has made that much harder. Romney's latest tax plan, for example, closely resembles a conservative plan previously released by Santorum. For 4 weeks receive unlimited Premium digital access to the FT's trusted, award-winning business news. Digital Be informed with the essential news and opinion. Delivery to your home or office Monday to Saturday FT Weekend paper — a stimulating blend of news and lifestyle features ePaper access — the digital replica of the printed newspaper.
Team or Enterprise Premium FT. Pay based on use. Does my organisation subscribe? On Tuesday night, Santorum emphasized the upcoming contests in Louisiana, Wisconsin and his home state of Pennsylvania on April 24, making it clear those were his next priorities.
Santorum, who lost his Senate re-election bid in Pennsylvania in by a whopping 18 percentage points, could be aiming for some degree of vindication with a victory in his home state before he calls it quits. But the results in Illinois showed conservatives and blue-collar voters are still having trouble accepting Romney. Everything changes.
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